It’s that time again: brands are gearing up for Euro summer 2026. But as fashion labels ink deals with European beach clubs to cash in on the jet set, the ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz — where about 20% of the world’s oil passes through — is fueling a brewing aviation crisis.
Low jet fuel supplies are driving costs upward, resulting in high airfares, reduced airline capacity, and in some cases all-out flight cancellations. The fuel crisis is worsening at a moment when summer travel bookings are ramping up, and it shows little sign of normalizing ahead of the peak season. As of late March, flight bookings from the US to Europe were down 11.2% year-on-year, according to aviation analyticss platform Cirium. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on the company’s earnings call last week that flight prices could rise by 15% to 20% in the coming months.
Right now, everything is up in the air, so the actual impact is hard to pinpoint, analysts agree. “Given air flight disruption — with major hubs in the Middle East at lower capacity — it is not yet clear how the tourist inflow and spend in Europe will eventually pan out,” says Bernstein luxury goods analyst Luca Solca. “The outlook would be very different if we had — or didn’t have — a deal between the US and Iran. In the absence of that, we are continuing headwinds on [Europe’s] inbound [tourism flows].” This uncertainty is a blow for luxury, which last summer saw a decline in spending from both American and Chinese tourists.
In 2025, analysts were optimistic that Chinese tourists would return by summer 2026 as their economy recovered. Now, this recovery is underway, but some are skeptical about how many Chinese tourists will make the summer trip abroad amid disruption. Galeries Lafayette CEO Arthur Lemoine partly attributed the company’s flat sales this past quarter to the Middle East crisis, given some Asian travelers pass through the region en route to Europe (and long-haul airfares are more expensive than usual, thanks to jet fuel costs). That said, Asian airlines including Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, and Korean Air are reporting strong demand on their European routes this summer, as Asian tourists who can afford to do so seek out European routes in lieu of Middle Eastern airport hubs. Plus, Chinese airlines are expected to add extra flights to Europe this summer, banking on their access to Russian airspace (and subsequent ability to bypass the Middle East) being a draw.
Euro summer is all over Instagram. But in reality, spending from American and Chinese tourists is down, and brands are feeling the heat.
Despite rising prices, luxury is better suited than most to weather the impact. “Higher-income consumers are more shielded simply because they have more flexibility. They can cope with any price hikes, and they have more options to change flights and look at alternatives,” says Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at intelligence firm Globaldata. What would actually drive travel down is if these consumers were to seriously fear for their safety, says Suzy Davidkhanian, VP of content at Emarketer, who leads the company’s retail practice. “For high-household-income folks with a lot of disposable cash, there might be some disruption — they might think about it twice, they might book a little bit closer to the flight time versus pay ahead — but summer is already locked and loaded, unless the war escalates in a way we can’t fathom.”
It’s the next tier of middle-high-income consumers that are more likely to feel the impact and alter their spend accordingly, experts agree. While this consumer bracket may still book their European summer getaways, they’re less likely to splurge on material goods once they arrive at their destination. They may also rework their plans, Davidkhanian says. “Maybe they’re going to go for less nights, or they’re going to go to one city instead of three,” she explains. And if they have to spend more money upfront just to get to their destination, they might shop less once they arrive.
What should brands do?
Though top clients are more resilient than most, Solca still recommends that brands be proactive by reaching out to clients and installing plans to sell their goods remotely via sales associates.
Davidkhanian agrees, suggesting that brands should speak more directly to local consumers than they otherwise might have done this summer. “Make sure that they know you’re also part of my consumer base, and that I’m courting you and I want you to come and buy the Loewe bag here — you don’t need to go to Spain to buy it,” she says. Brands have the data to know who would typically purchase abroad; they should use it to ensure they’re speaking to those shoppers at home, in case they don’t make the trip this year.
It’s not just Euro summer that’s on the rocks. 2026’s “summer of sport”, which will see the Fifa World Cup take over the US, Canada, and Mexico in June and July, could also face disruption, Saunders flags. That said, though brands’ traffic and sales targets may wind up overly ambitious due to travel disruption, these aren’t typically the main benchmarks for such an event. “A lot of the plans are about marketing, which drives returns over a longer period of time,” Saunders says. “For now, I think the attitude among many brands is that it’s business as usual.”
One bright spot for luxury is that, if people do stay closer to home, opting for staycations or no vacation at all, they may well have extra dollars to spend on designer goods, Saunders continues. “This could be good for luxury, because if money is freed up from travel, consumers may respond by buying themselves more luxury treats and indulgences.”
Still, for brands, non-local tourists are the most important spend to capture, as they’re the ones who often travel to shop. Hermès revenue from Europe (excluding France) was up 9.7% in Q1, but France was down 2.8%, due to a significant drop in tourism flows notably from the Middle East, the company reported. LVMH also noted disruption due to the conflict, adding that it is difficult to address. “When we talk about tourism, we consider only tourism from outside the Middle East. Of course, we also want tourism inside the region, but what is much more relevant for our business is from outside,” Moncler Group’s chief corporate and supply officer Luciano Santel told investors on the company’s Q1 earnings call. The upcoming second and third quarters are typically more exposed to tourism flows, meaning the next few months will be crucial for brands.
Summer is upon us, and brands are busy setting up shops along beaches and in resorts to make the most of tourist foot traffic. We break down the hot spots.
Despite travel woes, brands shouldn’t worry about their Euro summer hospitality investments. Though luxury consumers won’t be too pressed for spend, they too may actually lean further into experiences this summer, Davidkhanian adds. “They might start spending more time, energy, and dollars on experiences, moments or superfine dining — less of ‘Oh, I’m going to Europe and I’m going to buy three bags and seven pairs of shoes.’ They might do a bit less of that bulk shopping,” she says.
For this reason, branded beach clubs, restaurant collabs, and pop-ups are still a safe bet. “The people who are going to these Louis Vuitton in St Tropez or Taormina or wherever, those customers are only going to stop going if they’re worried about their safety,” Davidkhanian says. Given the current state of the world, she adds, brands will need to find ways to connect with shoppers on emotional levels, in order to strike the right chord. “It’s why they’re going to lean so hard into these special, personalized experiences that will inevitably end up costing the consumer a lot of money — but you might not be spending on a material good.”
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