Looking ahead to this year’s flagship watch fair, Watches & Wonders, the industry seems to be both robust and growing. Running from April 14 to 18 in Geneva, the 2026 edition will host 55 returning brands, plus 11 newcomers including Audemars Piguet. The exhibition area has expanded from 77,000 square meters in 2025 to 84,000 this year, with space for live performances by emerging musical talent and DJs. Visitor numbers are also continuing to grow, up 12% year-on-year in 2025, per Watches & Wonders.
But despite the rising interest, recent export figures published by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry paint a different picture. Total exports halved between 2000 and 2025, from 29.7 million units to 14.6 million units, while the value of those exports almost tripled from CHF 9.3 billion to CHF 24.4 billion ($11.8 billion to $30.9 billion) over the same period. Growth has consolidated at the top end, as the mid and entry-level consumer retreats and the industry becomes increasingly reliant on the high-end watch enthusiast.
The value of the high-end segment (watches priced CHF 3,000+, or $3,800+) increased more than sixfold between 2000 and 2025, from CHF 3.1 billion to CHF 19.5 billion ($3.9 billion to $25.7 billion), while volumes rose more modestly from 488,000 units to 1.87 million. By contrast, entry-level watches (watches priced CHF 200 and below, or $250) saw volumes collapse from 22.8 million to 8.3 million units, as value declined from CHF 1.2 billion to CHF 704 million ($1.5 billion to $892 million). The mid-range segment (watches priced CHF 200-500, or $250-650) also contracted, with volumes dropping from 3.1 million to 1.8 million units and value from CHF 1 billion to CHF 554 million ($1.3 billion to $701 million).
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The high-end consumer pool is small, and demand varies between geographies. Globally, only 5% of consumers are willing to spend CHF 10,000 to CHF 50,000 ($12,600 to $63,300) on a timepiece, and just 5% would pay above this threshold — respectively increasing to 20% and 16% in China, and to 18% for watches priced over CHF 50,000 in Hong Kong, according to a study from Deloitte.
Faced with this uneven backdrop, here are the defining characteristics of the watch industry in 2026 and how brands are navigating them.
Premiumization accelerates
According to Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s latest Annual Swiss Watcher report, one of the defining features of the watch industry remains premiumization. Watches priced above CHF 50,000 accounted for 37% of total export value and generated 89% of total export growth in 2025, despite representing just 1.4% of volumes. This reinforces the increasing concentration of value at the very top end of the watch segment.
The shift was first identified two years ago: in 2024, watches retailing above CHF 25,000 ($32,000) accounted for 69% of growth and 44% of export value, but made up just 2.5% of units. This is only intensifying, as the industry becomes structurally reliant on a very small number of high-value pieces — such as the Piaget Limelight, Vacheron Constantin’s Egérie, or the Patek Philippe Nautilus — to drive market growth.
That dynamic will be visible at this year’s Watches & Wonders fair, where a proliferation of jewelry watches will be on display. Cartier, for example, has introduced a model inspired by its Grain de Café collectsion, first launched in the 1930s, popularized by Grace Kelly in the late 1950s, and revived in 2023 following a hiatus. The new style is made from diamond-tipped “coffee beans” in 18-karat gold. Bvlgari has incorporated its signature colored gemstones into the Serpenti Aeterna line, and Chanel has expanded its high jewelry watch offering with the Nœud de Camélia collectsion, featuring bow-shaped dial covers, alongside new pendant models and ring watches.
On the men’s side, the focus remains on high-complication pieces that drive up prices and tap into the high-spending client. Newer brands such as Vanguart, which launched its first timepiece the Black Hole Tourbillon in 2021, are following the prestige model established by Richard Mille. The heritage watchmaker produces around just 5,000 watches per year, but has one of the largest annual turnovers at $2.2 billion, thanks to an average price point of $120,000.
Industry leaders, however, do not consider premiumization a deliberate approach, but an adaptation to the market over time. “We don’t really approach premiumization as a strategy in itself,” says Benoît de Clerck, chief executive of Zenith. “It’s more the natural consequence of the work we’ve done over the past years on the fundamentals of the brand.” He points to a focus on “mechanical integrity” and the creation of rare, distinctive pieces, such as the G.F.J. collectsion. These highly exclusive watches, produced in extremely limited numbers, hope to satisfy the demand for well-executed details like more precise mechanisms and guilloché decor.
Culture continues to drive demand
With the rise of health trackings technology and the evolving wearables space, the watch landscape is growing increasingly split between traditional timepieces and smartwatches. Usage patterns show a clear generational divide: 43% of baby boomers and 29% of Gen Xs mainly wear traditional watches, while millennials and Gen Zs are dominated by smartwatches (36% and 34%, respectively), often complemented by dual usage (35% of millennials and 27% of Gen Zs wear both), per Deloitte.
However, purchase intent for traditional watches remains resilient at 54%, almost on par with smartwatches at 53%, suggesting that mechanical watches are increasingly positioned not as functional tools, but as aspirational and symbolic purchases.
To sustain interest, communication has become a primary investment area for watchmakers, with brands homing in on elaborate storytelling and in-depth cultural activations to reach audiences beyond the traditional enthusiast.
One of the most notable examples is IWC’s partnership with F1: The Movie, directed by Joseph Kosinski. Rather than advertising around the film, the brand integrated its products directly into it: all main characters wear IWC watches. Brad Pitt’s Sonny Hayes wears an Ingenieur Automatic with a green dial developed at the actor’s request, while Damson Idris’s Joshua Pearce wears the Pilot’s Watch Performance Chronograph. Following the movie’s release, IWC released models inspired by and featured in the film.
This example of a seamless integration into culture is part of a deliberate strategy playing out across the industry.
“Culture plays a central role in shaping demand today, because watches are no longer discovered only through traditional channels, but through a continuous flow of content and storytelling,” says Tag Heuer CMO George Ciz. “Social media has accelerated visibility, celebrities have amplified desirability, and communities provide validation and education. Crucially, these elements reinforce each other: a watch can gain traction through a cultural moment, be amplified by influential figures, and then be discussed and analyzed within enthusiast communities.”
This shift in strategy goes beyond communication, extending into how watchmakers stage their operations. Production facilities themselves have become platforms for conveying stories. Audemars Piguet, currently the third largest watchmaker by turnover after Rolex and Cartier, positioned the opening of its new manufacturing hub, the Arc, as a major brand moment. Meanwhile, Hublot is focusing on creating a visitor experience around H3, its latest production site in Nyon, Switzerland.
For smaller independent brands, creating experiences and cultural moments has become equally critical. Matthieu Haverlan, managing director of Ulysse Nardin, an independent Swiss watchmaker founded in 1846, describes a deliberate move away from traditional advertising. “We focus on creative, unconventional initiatives. Our [video] collaboration with [renowned pastry] chef Amaury Guichon, for example, generated over 600 million views,” he says. A similar approach was taken at last year’s Watches & Wonders, where the brand created an immersive, consumer-focused experience instead of a conventional product display. “We like to meet visitors personally, tell our story, and create real interaction with the brand.”
Female taste diversifies
Against a backdrop of market uncertainty and cooling demand in key regions like China, watchmakers are increasingly targeting women as a growth driver. The rise of jewelry watches can be seen not only across maisons such as Bvlgari and Cartier, but also from traditional watchmakers including Vacheron Constantin. Last year, the latter launched a trio of bejeweled bangles, underscoring a strategic shift toward this consumer cohort.
LuxeConsult founder Oliver R. Müller notes that as the women’s segment expands, it can offer both high margins and significant untapped potential.
Increasingly, female interest is no longer confined to jewelry watches. More women are engaging with mechanical watchmaking and are tapping into traditionally masculine designs. “We observe a significantly better-informed and confident female audience,” says Maria Laffont, chief product officer at Tag Heuer. “Their interest is fueled by access to information, digital exposure, and a growing appreciation for mechanical watchmaking. Apart from its technical dimension, a watch is a personal statement, an object that expresses identity, heritage, and craftsmanship.”
Today, many women are purchasing watches for themselves, demonstrating a sophisticated understanding of movements, materials, and design codes, explains Laffont. She highlights women’s broadening preferences: from smaller, refined pieces to larger, more technical watches.
At Tag Heuer, this shift is reflected in a more flexible approach to watch design. “The focus is on offering a broad spectrum of proportions, materials, and aesthetics, allowing each individual to find a piece that resonates with their personal style, rather than segmenting products too rigidly,” Laffont explains. “This philosophy prioritizes versatility, comfort, and authenticity, while maintaining the brand’s technical integrity.” The more recent Carrera timepieces — one of Tag Heuer’s most popular models — feature dials as little as 29mm, while others are fitted with rubber straps, which work for both the gym and a cocktail reception.
Women’s watches have been a priority at Breitling for the past five years. In 2024, the brand introduced the limited-edition Chronomat Lady, in collaboration with Victoria Beckham, while 2025 saw the launch of the Lady Premier line, highlighting for the first time the role of Willy Breitling’s wife, Beatrice, who was a creative force behind the scenes. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimate that such launches could have boosted sales in the women’s segment by as much as 15%.
At the same time, the shift is not unilateral. At this year’s Watches & Wonders, brands traditionally associated with female clients, such as Van Cleef & Arpels and Chanel, are presenting models targeted at men. The diamond-less minimal Midnight Jour et Nuit Phase de Lune will feature, alongside new iterations of Chanel’s ceramic sports J12 timepiece and its more sophisticated Monsieur model.
A tricky export landscape
In 2025, the watch market remained fragile, characterized by uneven performance and distortions linked to changing trade policy, according to Deloitte.
Last April, when Trump threatened a 31% US tariff on Swiss exports, shipments to the States surged by 150%. This front-loading weakened to 45% in July, before the eventual 39% tariff set in on August 7. Since November, tariffs have been reduced to 15%, but uncertainty persists. The US, which accounts for 16.8% of Swiss watch exports, has become both a key growth engine and a source of volatility, as brands respond with price increases that risk dampening demand.
At the same time, key Asian markets remain under pressure: exports to China fell by 26% in 2024 and Hong Kong by 19%, with recovery prospects constrained by structural economic challenges, per Deloitte. Reflecting this environment, 43% of industry executives report a negative outlook for their main export markets, while over 80% cite trade measures, and more than 90% reference geopolitical tensions as disruptive forces underscoring a market shaped by external shocks.
These figures do not yet account for recent developments, including the conflict in the Middle East, which is traditionally a strong market for luxury goods. “Uncertainty is poisonous for any business, and especially for the luxury sector, where products are by definition non-essential,” says Müller of LuxeConsult. He argues that the industry is facing a multi-layered set of pressures, combining cyclical headwinds — such as a strong Swiss franc, rising gold prices, and production overcapacity — with deeper structural shifts.
Chief among these is the continued polarization of the market around a handful of dominant players — including Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Omega — alongside a longstanding trend toward premiumization. As a result, very few brands can scale. While some independent watchmakers continue to thrive, many struggle to sustain growth and are likely to exit the market.
Müller identifies a new challenge for the watch industry. Easier access — driven by social media and reinforced by the 2017 “Swissness” regulation, which clarified production requirements while allowing greater flexibility in sourcing components — has lowered barriers to entry, increasing the number of new brands without necessarily improving their long-term viability. “Because of cyclical pressures and structural shifts,” Müller concludes, “2026 is likely to be one of the most challenging years in recent memory.”
